2026-06-10 — views
Max pain analysis (2026-06-10) — 12 AI stocks at June 2026 monthly expiration
Max pain for 12 AI tickers at the 2026-06-18 expiry, refreshed 2026-06-10 using June 9 EOD prices. 8 sit above max pain (downward pull), 3 below (upward pull), 1 pinned (TSLA +0.69%). Biggest gap: AMD at -13.71%; AVGO flipped to downward pull at -2.83%.
Max pain is the strike price at which the most option contracts expire worthless — where option sellers (typically market makers) net the most profit while buyers lose the most. As monthly options approach expiration, market-maker hedging flows tend to push the underlying toward that strike.
This analysis covers 12 major AI-exposed stocks at the June 2026 monthly expiration, which lands on Thursday 2026-06-18 (one day early because Friday 2026-06-19 is Juneteenth, a US market holiday). Refreshed 2026-06-10 — data-honesty note: prices are June 9 EOD closes (Alpaca 16:52 ET), and the open-interest snapshot is 2026-06-08 final settled OI (the most recent available). ~8 days to expiry.
The headline shift from yesterday’s refresh: TSLA is now pinned (+0.69%, inside the ±1% band) and AVGO flipped to downward pull (now +2.83% above its $380 max-pain strike). The board reads 8 above / 3 below / 1 pinned.
Max pain table — June 2026 monthly (2026-06-18), refreshed 2026-06-10
Prices: June 9 EOD close (Alpaca 16:52 ET). OI settled: 2026-06-08.
| Ticker | Price | Max pain | Distance | Direction | Top call OI | Top put OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $207.70 | $195 | -6.11% | ↓ pull DOWN | $200 | $200 |
| AVGO | $391.06 | $380 | -2.83% | ↓ pull DOWN | $410 | $300 |
| AMD | $480.96 | $415 | -13.71% | ↓ pull DOWN | $400 | $400 |
| AAPL | $290.73 | $270 | -7.13% | ↓ pull DOWN | $320 | $250 |
| GOOGL | $364.05 | $345 | -5.23% | ↓ pull DOWN | $450 | $360 |
| MSFT | $403.92 | $420 | +3.98% | ↑ pull UP | $480 | $400 |
| AMZN | $244.15 | $230 | -5.79% | ↓ pull DOWN | $300 | $200 |
| META | $584.85 | $618 | +5.67% | ↑ pull UP | $700 | $500 |
| TSM | $426.08 | $380 | -10.81% | ↓ pull DOWN | $370 | $400 |
| MU | $937.61 | $850 | -9.34% | ↓ pull DOWN | $1000 | $700 |
| PLTR | $132.05 | $140 | +6.02% | ↑ pull UP | $150 | $120 |
| TSLA | $397.24 | $400 | +0.69% | 📌 pinned | $450 | $300 |
Direction convention: current price above max pain = ↓ pull DOWN (writers gain if price falls to max pain); current below = ↑ pull UP; within ±1% = pinned.
Key observations
AMD is the most dislocated name at -13.71%. Price at $480.96 vs. max-pain $415. The $400 strike holds the largest open interest on both sides. With 8 DTE this is a substantial gap; it would require a ~$66 move to converge to max pain — more likely the dealers are riding the rally rather than fighting it.
TSLA has moved inside the ±1% pin band (+0.69%). This is the first strictly pinned name since early June. With $400 as both a round-number resistance level and the max-pain strike, TSLA is a genuine gravitational pin candidate going into expiry.
AVGO flipped overnight. After sitting just below its $380 max-pain strike (upward pull) through most of the week, AVGO’s EOD close at $391.06 puts it -2.83% above. The flip is meaningful: it adds AVGO to the eight-name downward-pull cohort and removes it from the three-name upward cluster.
MU warrants extra attention. At $937.61 vs. max-pain $850 (-9.34%) with an ATM IV of 107% — roughly double any peer — MU’s options are pricing an unusual move into expiry. Confirm whether Micron has an earnings event on or near June 18; if so, the max-pain gravity interpretation is secondary to the earnings catalyst.
META remains the deepest upward pull at +5.67% below its $618 max-pain strike. The $700 call and $500 put hold the heaviest OI, indicating a wide strangle book. Max-pain gravitational force to the upside is real here, but META has traded comfortably below $618 for two sessions now.
How to read this
Max pain is dealer gravity, not destiny. Stocks gravitate to their max-pain strike in low-volatility tape with no major catalysts. Trend regimes — post-earnings melt-ups, macro events, sector rotations — override the gravitational force entirely. Use this table to frame the near-term bias (where option seller interest is heaviest) rather than as a standalone trade signal. Eight days to expiry is when the gravity starts to matter most for names already close to their pin.