AV Ride Economics — Cost Per Mile, VPO Leverage, and the Path to AV Profitability
Bottom-up cost model for one AV ride: vehicle amortization, VPO leverage, fleet utilization — and what Waymo and Tesla robotaxi need to reach profitability.
Bottom-up cost model for one AV ride: vehicle amortization, VPO leverage, fleet utilization — and what Waymo and Tesla robotaxi need to reach profitability.
What it costs Waymo vs. a human Uber driver per mile today, Tesla Cybercab manufacturing bet, and when the economics flip. Investor-critical robotaxi analysis.
Waymo earns est. $2.50–$5.00/mile but stays unprofitable. Cybercab projects ~3-month payback if the $30K cost target and minimal remote-ops claim both hold.
No major AV platform is profitable in 2026. Waymo needs Gen 6 cost cuts. Tesla Cybercab targets est. $30K. Aurora must undercut truck driver wages per mile.