2026-06-17 — views
Max pain analysis (2026-06-17) — 12 AI stocks at June 2026 expiry (last trading day 2026-06-18)
Max pain for 12 AI tickers at the 2026-06-18 expiry (Juneteenth holiday moves last trading day to Thursday). OI dated 2026-06-15. 10 sit below max pain (upward gravity), 2 above (TSM, MU). Biggest gap: MSFT −9.55%, META −8.51%.
OI data date: 2026-06-15 (Monday EOD — standard 1-business-day lag). Prices: Alpaca IEX feed, 2026-06-17 ~3:43 PM ET (regular session final bars). Expiry: 2026-06-18 (Thursday — Juneteenth holiday on 2026-06-19 shifts the last trading day one session earlier). This is the final max-pain snapshot before the June 2026 monthly expiry.
Max-pain table — June 2026 expiry (2026-06-18)
| Ticker | Price (6/17) | Max Pain | Distance | Pull | Top Call Strike (OI) | Top Put Strike (OI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $203.88 | $214.00 | −4.43% | ↑ UP | $210 (108,480) | $200 (66,447) |
| AVGO | $390.27 | $400.00 | −1.50% | ↑ UP* | $410 (11,831) | $300 (14,146) |
| AMD | $511.95 | $525.00 | −2.44% | ↑ UP | $600 (15,882) | $500 (11,133) |
| AAPL | $295.09 | $300.00 | −1.31% | ↑ UP* | $320 (44,951) | $250 (25,768) |
| GOOGL | $363.46 | $372.50 | −2.32% | ↑ UP | $450 (29,302) | $340 (13,470) |
| MSFT | $378.09 | $420.00 | −9.55% | ↑ UP | $450 (38,675) | $400 (17,442) |
| AMZN | $237.42 | $250.00 | −4.97% | ↑ UP | $250 (31,643) | $200 (33,896) |
| META | $569.53 | $620.00 | −8.51% | ↑ UP | $700 (25,329) | $500 (14,712) |
| TSM | $432.42 | $400.00 | +8.03% | ↓ DOWN | $370 (35,143) | $400 (27,509) |
| MU | $1,055.91 | $1,020.00 | +3.81% | ↓ DOWN | $1,200 (14,135) | $900 (11,599) |
| PLTR | $130.60 | $136.00 | −3.13% | ↑ UP | $140 (28,407) | $120 (25,529) |
| TSLA | $394.41 | $420.00 | −5.44% | ↑ UP | $450 (41,501) | $300 (23,633) |
*AVGO (−1.50%) and AAPL (−1.31%) are the closest to their max-pain levels and primary pin candidates into the 6/18 close.
Direction convention: current price above max pain = ↓ pull DOWN; below max pain = ↑ pull UP; within ±1% = pinned.
Key observations
10 of 12 names sit below max pain — the broadest upward-skew reading since this series began. The 2026 AI-infrastructure rally has pushed most names above their April/May positioning levels, leaving options market-makers with heavy call inventory and max-pain levels that price action hasn’t caught up to.
The two true pin candidates: AAPL ($295.09 vs $300.00, −1.31%) and AVGO ($390.27 vs $400.00, −1.50%) are the only names where dealer gamma forces can realistically pin the stock by Thursday close. Both $300 (AAPL) and $400 (AVGO) are clean round-number psychological levels with dense OI.
Biggest dislocations: MSFT (−9.55%, $379 vs $420 max pain) and META (−8.51%, $570 vs $620) are so far from their max-pain levels that pinning in a single session is essentially impossible. These are directional signals — options positioning skewed to a higher price than where both stocks currently sit — rather than pin candidates.
NVDA’s $210 call wall: with 108,480 contracts at the $210 strike (the largest single-strike OI in this entire dataset), the $210 level is a structural ceiling into Thursday. NVDA at $203.88 sits 4.43% below max pain at $214, with massive call OI clustering at $210.
TSM is the anomaly: at $432 vs max pain $400, TSM has rallied 8% above its max-pain level — the largest downward-pull name. The $400 strike has heavy put OI (27.5K) while calls cluster at the lower $370 level (35K), reflecting the positioning from when TSM was trading in the $370–400 range. TSM’s rally toward $432 has wrong-footed the options market.
AMZN’s put-heavy skew: AMZN shows more put OI at the $200 strike (33,896) than call OI at $250 (31,643) — unusual for a name with bullish max-pain pull. This put base at $200 acts as a downside floor but also signals hedging demand.
Practitioner note
With one session left to the June 2026 monthly expiry, the max-pain framework is at its most predictive for AAPL and AVGO — the two names within 1.5% of their max-pain levels. For these two, dealer gamma effects (buying dips toward max pain, selling rallies above it) are the dominant short-term force. Beyond that 2% band, trend and momentum override gamma pinning, especially for MSFT and META where the gap is simply too large.
Max-pain theory does not override earnings, macro events, or index rebalancing. Use it as one input alongside volatility regime, momentum, and upcoming catalysts.
Methodology
OI data sourced from Alpaca Markets options contracts API, reflecting end-of-day positions settled 2026-06-15. Max-pain strike computed as the strike minimizing total option holder losses: for each candidate strike K, sum across all strikes S of (call_OI(S) × max(0, S−K) + put_OI(S) × max(0, K−S)). The minimum-loss strike is max pain. Distance% = (underlying − max_pain) / max_pain × 100. Strike band: ±25% of underlying price. This is a market-structure analysis, not financial advice.