2026-05-17 — views · Earnings reaction analysis
Stock price + earnings-call timeline — NVDA, MSFT, MU, TSM, AMD (12-month chart per stock)
Five AI-exposed stocks (NVDA, MSFT, MU, TSM, AMD) on weekly-close charts with each earnings-call date marked. Visualizes how price reacted to each quarterly report — beat (green) or miss (red).
Each chart below shows 12-month weekly close prices for one stock, with every earnings-call date marked as a vertical dashed line + colored dot on the price curve. Green = beat consensus EPS, red = miss, gray = inline. The dots sit at the closing price closest to the earnings date, so you can see the magnitude of the post-earnings reaction.
The earnings event list below each chart shows the exact date, quarter, revenue, EPS actual vs estimate, verdict, and forward guidance — the full context of why the stock moved.
NVIDIA (NVDA) — three earnings, three beats, $108 → $226
NVDA’s trajectory through 2025-2026 is a textbook AI-cycle compound. Every earnings call beat consensus — Q2 FY26 (Aug 2025, $46.7B), Q3 FY26 (Nov 2025, $57B), Q4 FY26 (Feb 2026, $68.1B / +20% QoQ / $78B Q1 FY27 guide). The Feb 25 print drove the most visible single-day pop. Stock more than doubled in 12 months.
Microsoft (MSFT) — quiet compounder, 4 consecutive beats
Microsoft’s pattern is less explosive but more durable. 4 consecutive earnings beats over 12 months — and the Q3 FY26 print (Apr 29, 2026) is the one that lifted the market cap to ~$3.2T on the back of AI annual run-rate $37B (+123% YoY). The capex guide upgrade to $190B is what cemented Azure-AI as a multi-year compound.
Micron (MU) — the memory super-cycle in one chart
This is the most dramatic chart in the set. Three consecutive beats with the Q2 FY26 print on March 18, 2026 delivering $23.9B revenue (+75% QoQ, +196% YoY) — the cleanest AI-memory cycle data point. The post-earnings price move ($172 → $182 over 3 days) was relatively muted given the magnitude of the beat, suggesting much of the rally was already priced in beforehand (look at the run from $145 in Oct 2025 to $172 in mid-March 2026).
TSMC (TSM) — 4 beats, foundry-cycle proof
TSMC reports monthly revenue (a unique disclosure in the chip space) which means the market has continuous read on the trajectory between quarterly earnings calls. The Apr 10, 2026 Q1 print at $35.9B (+40.6% YoY) confirmed what the monthlies had already telegraphed; the share-price step-up after each earnings is incremental rather than explosive.
AMD — the comeback story (miss → miss → beat → BEAT BIG)
AMD’s earnings pattern is the most volatile in the set. Aug 2025 Q2 = miss (stock down 8%). Feb 2026 Q4 = miss (stock down 10%). Then May 5, 2026 Q1 beat — $10.3B revenue, $5.8B data-center segment (+57% YoY), stock popped +18% in a single session. The chart shows the entire arc: drift down into Feb 2026 low ($158), recovery into the May print ($182), then the explosive post-earnings move to $215+.
Cross-stock pattern observations
1. Beats compound, misses linger. NVDA’s 3-of-3 and MSFT’s 4-of-4 trace clean uptrends. AMD’s 2 misses created two extended drawdown periods (Aug 2025 → Sep, Feb 2026 → Mar). The single Q1 2026 beat erased months of bear-thesis pricing in one session.
2. Pre-earnings runup vs post-earnings pop. Micron is the clearest example — most of the +25% from October to mid-March 2026 happened before the Q2 FY26 print. The post-earnings move was only +5-6%. Translation: the market is anticipating the AI-memory cycle, not reacting to its confirmation. Buying right before earnings is the worst trade on Micron.
3. The verdict isn’t EPS, it’s guidance. NVDA’s Feb 2026 beat was driven less by Q4 actuals than by the Q1 FY27 guidance of $78B (vs $72.6B consensus). Same for MSFT’s Apr 2026 print where the $190B capex guide (raised from $180B) mattered more than the $82.9B revenue beat. EPS beats with weak guidance produce flat-to-down reactions; in-line EPS with strong guidance can rip 8%+.
4. Same-sector reads tell you the regime. All 5 of these stocks reported “beat” in their most recent quarter. When 5-of-5 AI-exposed names print beats with raised guidance, that’s the structural-bull regime. When 2-of-5 miss in the same quarter — see AMD Q4 2025 + Q2 2025 — that’s the regime-shift warning sign. Today (May 2026): 5/5 = full structural bull.
How to read the charts
- Solid line: weekly closing price
- Filled area: visual emphasis of the price trajectory
- Vertical dashed lines: each earnings call date (color matches the verdict)
- Colored dot on the price line: snapshot of the stock at its closing price nearest the earnings date
- Labels above/below dots: alternate to avoid overlap; show quarter + revenue + verdict
- Event list below: full date, quarter, revenue, EPS actual vs estimate, beat/miss verdict, and forward guidance
Methodology
- Price data: weekly Friday close prices, May 2025 → May 16 2026 (~12 months, ~15 weekly points per stock)
- Earnings dates: each company’s reported earnings-call calendar — NVDA reports Feb / May / Aug / Nov; MSFT reports Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct; MU reports Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec; TSM reports Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct; AMD reports Feb / May / Jul-Aug / Oct
- Verdict: actual non-GAAP EPS vs consensus estimate at time of report
- Forward guidance: pulled from the post-earnings press release where material
For the full market-cap + revenue snapshot of all 25 major AI-exposed names, see the AI Stocks Tracker. For the 2030 projection table, see the 2030 forecast article.
Sources
- NVIDIA Q4 FY26 results — NVIDIA IR ↗
- NVIDIA Q4 FY26 $68.1B revenue — Fortune ↗
- Microsoft FY26 Q3 — Microsoft IR ↗
- Micron Q2 FY26 $23.9B — Micron IR ↗
- Micron Q2 FY26 +196% YoY — Beating the Tide ↗
- TSMC Q1 2026 quarterly results ↗
- TSMC Q1 2026 +40.6% YoY — CNBC ↗
- AMD Q1 2026 results — AMD IR ↗
- AMD Q1 2026 +38% YoY, stock +18% — Yahoo Finance ↗
- AI Stocks Tracker — May 2026 snapshot ↗