2026-05-17 — 次浏览 · Earnings reaction analysis

股价 + 财报电话会时间轴 — NVDA、MSFT、MU、TSM、AMD（每股 12 个月图）

5 档 AI 相关股票（NVDA、MSFT、MU、TSM、AMD）周收盘图，每场财报电话会日期皆标注。可视化呈现股价对每季财报的反应——超出预期（绿）或不及预期（红）。

下方每张图为一档股票 12 个月周收盘价，每场 财报电话会日期 以垂直虚线 + 彩色圆点标于股价曲线上。绿 = EPS 超出共识、红 = 不及、灰 = 符合。圆点落在最接近财报电话会日期的收盘价，让你看见财报后反应幅度。每张图下方列出财报事件清单——日期、季度、营收、实际 EPS vs 共识、结论、前瞻指引。

NVIDIA（NVDA）— 3 场财报、3 次超预期、$108 → $226

NVDA 在 2025-2026 轨迹是教科书级 AI 循环复利。每一场财报皆超出共识——Q2 FY26（2025-08，$46.7B）、Q3 FY26（2025-11，$57B）、Q4 FY26（2026-02，$68.1B / +20% QoQ / Q1 FY27 指引 $78B）。2 月 25 日财报触发最明显单日跳涨。12 个月内股价涨超 2 倍。

NVDA · 周收盘 · 3 场全超预期

NVDA NVIDIA $205 ↑ +75.2% · since 2025-05-09

2025-08-27 Q2 FY26 Rev $46.70B EPS $1.05 vs $0.98 BEAT Q3 guide $54B ±2%

2025-11-19 Q3 FY26 Rev $57.00B EPS $1.32 vs $1.25 BEAT Q4 guide $65B ±2%

2026-02-25 Q4 FY26 Rev $68.10B EPS $1.62 vs $1.52 BEAT Q1 FY27 guide $78B ±2%

2026-05-28 Q1 FY27 Rev $80.00B EPS $1.88 vs $1.78 BEAT Q2 FY27 guide $84B ±2%

Microsoft（MSFT）— 稳定复利、连 4 次超预期

Microsoft 模式较不爆炸但更持久。12 个月内 4 场财报连续超预期——而 Q3 FY26 财报（2026-04-29）将市值推上约 $3.2T，背后是 AI 年化营收 $37B（+123% YoY）。资本支出指引上调至 $190B 才是 Azure-AI 多年复利确立的关键。

MSFT · 周收盘 · 4 场 4 中 · AI 跑速 $37B

MSFT Microsoft $391 ↓ -10.9% · since 2025-05-09

2025-07-30 Q4 FY25 Rev $70.10B EPS $3.40 vs $3.30 BEAT

2025-10-29 Q1 FY26 Rev $71.50B EPS $3.65 vs $3.50 BEAT

2026-01-28 Q2 FY26 Rev $76.40B EPS $3.95 vs $3.80 BEAT

2026-04-29 Q3 FY26 Rev $82.90B EPS $4.27 vs $4.10 BEAT FY26 capex raised to $190B

Micron（MU）— 一张图看内存超周期

本组最戏剧性图表。连 3 场超预期，2026-03-18 Q2 FY26 财报带来 $23.9B 营收（+75% QoQ、+196% YoY）——AI 内存周期最干净的单一数据点。财报后股价变动（$172 → $182、3 天）相对温和，意味着大幅度反弹已在事前定价（看 2025-10 $145 到 2026-03 中 $172 的爬坡）。

MU · 周收盘 · Q2 FY26 +196% YoY 震撼

MU Micron $982 ↑ +1041.9% · since 2025-05-09

2025-09-24 Q4 FY25 Rev $8.06B EPS $1.50 vs $1.42 BEAT

2025-12-17 Q1 FY26 Rev $8.71B EPS $1.62 vs $1.55 BEAT

2026-03-18 Q2 FY26 Rev $23.86B EPS $19.15 vs $12.40 BEAT Q3 guide $33.5B, GM 81%

TSMC（TSM）— 4 场全超预期、晶圆周期证明

TSMC 公布月度营收（芯片业界独有披露），意味市场在季财报之间有连续轨迹读数。2026-04-10 Q1 财报 $35.9B（+40.6% YoY） 确认月度已预告之事；每次财报后股价涨幅为渐进式而非爆炸性。

TSM · 周收盘 · 4 场 4 中 · 月度预告

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor $424 ↑ +139.5% · since 2025-05-09

2025-07-17 Q2 2025 Rev $23.36B EPS $2.07 vs $1.98 BEAT

2025-10-16 Q3 2025 Rev $26.40B EPS $2.45 vs $2.32 BEAT

2026-01-15 Q4 2025 Rev $32.85B EPS $3.10 vs $2.95 BEAT

2026-04-10 Q1 2026 Rev $35.90B EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 BEAT Q2 guide $39-40.2B

AMD — 反转故事（miss → miss → beat → 爆 beat）

AMD 财报模式波动最大。2025-08 Q2 = miss（股价 -8%）。2026-02 Q4 = miss（股价 -10%）。然后 2026-05-05 Q1 超预期 — 营收 $10.3B、数据中心 $5.8B（+57% YoY）、股价单日 +18%。图中清楚呈现整个弧线：2026-02 跌至 ~$158 低点、5 月财报前恢复至 ~$182、财报后爆冲至 $215+。

AMD · 周收盘 · 2 场 miss → Q1 2026 超预期爆冲

AMD AMD $512 ↑ +397.1% · since 2025-05-09

2025-08-05 Q2 2025 Rev $7.69B EPS $0.88 vs $0.91 MISS

2025-10-28 Q3 2025 Rev $8.10B EPS $1.01 vs $0.95 BEAT

2026-02-04 Q4 2025 Rev $7.66B EPS $1.10 vs $1.12 MISS Q1 guide $10.2B mid

2026-05-05 Q1 2026 Rev $10.30B EPS $1.37 vs $1.29 BEAT Q2 guide $11.2B ±$300M

跨股观察

1. Beats compound, misses linger. NVDA’s 3-of-3 and MSFT’s 4-of-4 trace clean uptrends. AMD’s 2 misses created two extended drawdown periods (Aug 2025 → Sep, Feb 2026 → Mar). The single Q1 2026 beat erased months of bear-thesis pricing in one session.

2. Pre-earnings runup vs post-earnings pop. Micron is the clearest example — most of the +25% from October to mid-March 2026 happened before the Q2 FY26 print. The post-earnings move was only +5-6%. Translation: the market is anticipating the AI-memory cycle, not reacting to its confirmation. Buying right before earnings is the worst trade on Micron.

3. The verdict isn’t EPS, it’s guidance. NVDA’s Feb 2026 beat was driven less by Q4 actuals than by the Q1 FY27 guidance of $78B (vs $72.6B consensus). Same for MSFT’s Apr 2026 print where the $190B capex guide (raised from $180B) mattered more than the $82.9B revenue beat. EPS beats with weak guidance produce flat-to-down reactions; in-line EPS with strong guidance can rip 8%+.

4. Same-sector reads tell you the regime. All 5 of these stocks reported “beat” in their most recent quarter. When 5-of-5 AI-exposed names print beats with raised guidance, that’s the structural-bull regime. When 2-of-5 miss in the same quarter — see AMD Q4 2025 + Q2 2025 — that’s the regime-shift warning sign. Today (May 2026): 5/5 = full structural bull.

如何阅读此图

Solid line: weekly closing price
Filled area: visual emphasis of the price trajectory
Vertical dashed lines: each earnings call date (color matches the verdict)
Colored dot on the price line: snapshot of the stock at its closing price nearest the earnings date
Labels above/below dots: alternate to avoid overlap; show quarter + revenue + verdict
Event list below: full date, quarter, revenue, EPS actual vs estimate, beat/miss verdict, and forward guidance

方法论

Price data: weekly Friday close prices, May 2025 → May 16 2026 (~12 months, ~15 weekly points per stock)
Earnings dates: each company’s reported earnings-call calendar — NVDA reports Feb / May / Aug / Nov; MSFT reports Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct; MU reports Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec; TSM reports Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct; AMD reports Feb / May / Jul-Aug / Oct
Verdict: actual non-GAAP EPS vs consensus estimate at time of report
Forward guidance: pulled from the post-earnings press release where material

For the full market-cap + revenue snapshot of all 25 major AI-exposed names, see the AI Stocks Tracker. For the 2030 projection table, see the 2030 forecast article.