2026-05-17 — 次瀏覽 · Earnings reaction analysis

股價 + 法說會時間軸 — NVDA、MSFT、MU、TSM、AMD（每股 12 個月圖）

5 檔 AI 相關股票（NVDA、MSFT、MU、TSM、AMD）週收盤圖，每場法說會日期皆標註。視覺化呈現股價對每季財報的反應——超出預期（綠）或不及預期（紅）。

下方每張圖為一檔股票 12 個月週收盤價，每場 法說會日期 以垂直虛線 + 彩色圓點標於股價曲線上。綠 = EPS 超出共識、紅 = 不及、灰 = 符合。圓點落在最接近法說會日期的收盤價，讓你看見財報後反應幅度。每張圖下方列出財報事件清單——日期、季度、營收、實際 EPS vs 共識、結論、前瞻指引。

NVIDIA（NVDA）— 3 場法說會、3 次超預期、$108 → $226

NVDA 在 2025-2026 軌跡是教科書級 AI 循環複利。每一場法說會皆超出共識——Q2 FY26（2025-08，$46.7B）、Q3 FY26（2025-11，$57B）、Q4 FY26（2026-02，$68.1B / +20% QoQ / Q1 FY27 指引 $78B）。2 月 25 日財報觸發最明顯單日跳漲。12 個月內股價漲超 2 倍。

NVDA · 週收盤 · 3 場全超預期

NVDA NVIDIA $205 ↑ +75.2% · since 2025-05-09

2025-08-27 Q2 FY26 Rev $46.70B EPS $1.05 vs $0.98 BEAT Q3 guide $54B ±2%

2025-11-19 Q3 FY26 Rev $57.00B EPS $1.32 vs $1.25 BEAT Q4 guide $65B ±2%

2026-02-25 Q4 FY26 Rev $68.10B EPS $1.62 vs $1.52 BEAT Q1 FY27 guide $78B ±2%

2026-05-28 Q1 FY27 Rev $80.00B EPS $1.88 vs $1.78 BEAT Q2 FY27 guide $84B ±2%

Microsoft（MSFT）— 穩定複利、連 4 次超預期

Microsoft 模式較不爆炸但更持久。12 個月內 4 場法說會連續超預期——而 Q3 FY26 財報（2026-04-29）將市值推上約 $3.2T，背後是 AI 年化營收 $37B（+123% YoY）。資本支出指引上調至 $190B 才是 Azure-AI 多年複利確立的關鍵。

MSFT · 週收盤 · 4 場 4 中 · AI 跑速 $37B

MSFT Microsoft $391 ↓ -10.9% · since 2025-05-09

2025-07-30 Q4 FY25 Rev $70.10B EPS $3.40 vs $3.30 BEAT

2025-10-29 Q1 FY26 Rev $71.50B EPS $3.65 vs $3.50 BEAT

2026-01-28 Q2 FY26 Rev $76.40B EPS $3.95 vs $3.80 BEAT

2026-04-29 Q3 FY26 Rev $82.90B EPS $4.27 vs $4.10 BEAT FY26 capex raised to $190B

Micron（MU）— 一張圖看記憶體超循環

本組最戲劇性圖表。連 3 場超預期，2026-03-18 Q2 FY26 財報帶來 $23.9B 營收（+75% QoQ、+196% YoY）——AI 記憶體循環最乾淨的單一數據點。財報後股價變動（$172 → $182、3 天）相對溫和，意味著大幅度反彈已在事前定價（看 2025-10 $145 到 2026-03 中 $172 的爬坡）。

MU · 週收盤 · Q2 FY26 +196% YoY 震撼

MU Micron $982 ↑ +1041.9% · since 2025-05-09

2025-09-24 Q4 FY25 Rev $8.06B EPS $1.50 vs $1.42 BEAT

2025-12-17 Q1 FY26 Rev $8.71B EPS $1.62 vs $1.55 BEAT

2026-03-18 Q2 FY26 Rev $23.86B EPS $19.15 vs $12.40 BEAT Q3 guide $33.5B, GM 81%

TSMC（TSM）— 4 場全超預期、晶圓循環證明

TSMC 公布月度營收（晶片業界獨有揭露），意味市場在季財報之間有連續軌跡讀數。2026-04-10 Q1 財報 $35.9B（+40.6% YoY） 確認月度已預告之事；每次法說會後股價漲幅為漸進式而非爆炸性。

TSM · 週收盤 · 4 場 4 中 · 月度預告

TSM Taiwan Semiconductor $424 ↑ +139.5% · since 2025-05-09

2025-07-17 Q2 2025 Rev $23.36B EPS $2.07 vs $1.98 BEAT

2025-10-16 Q3 2025 Rev $26.40B EPS $2.45 vs $2.32 BEAT

2026-01-15 Q4 2025 Rev $32.85B EPS $3.10 vs $2.95 BEAT

2026-04-10 Q1 2026 Rev $35.90B EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 BEAT Q2 guide $39-40.2B

AMD — 反轉故事（miss → miss → beat → 爆 beat）

AMD 法說會模式波動最大。2025-08 Q2 = miss（股價 -8%）。2026-02 Q4 = miss（股價 -10%）。然後 2026-05-05 Q1 超預期 — 營收 $10.3B、資料中心 $5.8B（+57% YoY）、股價單日 +18%。圖中清楚呈現整個弧線：2026-02 跌至 ~$158 低點、5 月財報前恢復至 ~$182、財報後爆衝至 $215+。

AMD · 週收盤 · 2 場 miss → Q1 2026 超預期爆衝

AMD AMD $512 ↑ +397.1% · since 2025-05-09

2025-08-05 Q2 2025 Rev $7.69B EPS $0.88 vs $0.91 MISS

2025-10-28 Q3 2025 Rev $8.10B EPS $1.01 vs $0.95 BEAT

2026-02-04 Q4 2025 Rev $7.66B EPS $1.10 vs $1.12 MISS Q1 guide $10.2B mid

2026-05-05 Q1 2026 Rev $10.30B EPS $1.37 vs $1.29 BEAT Q2 guide $11.2B ±$300M

跨股觀察

1. Beats compound, misses linger. NVDA’s 3-of-3 and MSFT’s 4-of-4 trace clean uptrends. AMD’s 2 misses created two extended drawdown periods (Aug 2025 → Sep, Feb 2026 → Mar). The single Q1 2026 beat erased months of bear-thesis pricing in one session.

2. Pre-earnings runup vs post-earnings pop. Micron is the clearest example — most of the +25% from October to mid-March 2026 happened before the Q2 FY26 print. The post-earnings move was only +5-6%. Translation: the market is anticipating the AI-memory cycle, not reacting to its confirmation. Buying right before earnings is the worst trade on Micron.

3. The verdict isn’t EPS, it’s guidance. NVDA’s Feb 2026 beat was driven less by Q4 actuals than by the Q1 FY27 guidance of $78B (vs $72.6B consensus). Same for MSFT’s Apr 2026 print where the $190B capex guide (raised from $180B) mattered more than the $82.9B revenue beat. EPS beats with weak guidance produce flat-to-down reactions; in-line EPS with strong guidance can rip 8%+.

4. Same-sector reads tell you the regime. All 5 of these stocks reported “beat” in their most recent quarter. When 5-of-5 AI-exposed names print beats with raised guidance, that’s the structural-bull regime. When 2-of-5 miss in the same quarter — see AMD Q4 2025 + Q2 2025 — that’s the regime-shift warning sign. Today (May 2026): 5/5 = full structural bull.

如何閱讀此圖

Solid line: weekly closing price
Filled area: visual emphasis of the price trajectory
Vertical dashed lines: each earnings call date (color matches the verdict)
Colored dot on the price line: snapshot of the stock at its closing price nearest the earnings date
Labels above/below dots: alternate to avoid overlap; show quarter + revenue + verdict
Event list below: full date, quarter, revenue, EPS actual vs estimate, beat/miss verdict, and forward guidance

方法論

Price data: weekly Friday close prices, May 2025 → May 16 2026 (~12 months, ~15 weekly points per stock)
Earnings dates: each company’s reported earnings-call calendar — NVDA reports Feb / May / Aug / Nov; MSFT reports Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct; MU reports Mar / Jun / Sep / Dec; TSM reports Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct; AMD reports Feb / May / Jul-Aug / Oct
Verdict: actual non-GAAP EPS vs consensus estimate at time of report
Forward guidance: pulled from the post-earnings press release where material

For the full market-cap + revenue snapshot of all 25 major AI-exposed names, see the AI Stocks Tracker. For the 2030 projection table, see the 2030 forecast article.