AV Adverse Weather Performance — Rain, Snow, Fog and Why Waymo Stays in Phoenix
Rain kills cameras, fog kills lidar, radar survives everything — why geography determines where driverless robotaxis can actually launch.
Rain kills cameras, fog kills lidar, radar survives everything — why geography determines where driverless robotaxis can actually launch.
How rain, fog, snow, and heat shape the geographic ceiling for Tesla FSD and Waymo — and which US cities can go driverless first.
How rain, snow, and fog degrade lidar, camera, and radar differently — and why sensor physics explains the Sun Belt expansion pattern of every major AV company.
Waymo handles SF fog with 1550nm LIDAR. Tesla FSD uses snow-belt training data. No AV system is validated for driverless heavy snow or ice as of mid-2026.
Waymo excludes snow from commercial ODD; Tesla FSD camera is vulnerable to sun glare. Radar saves both in rain and fog. Snow is Waymo expansion bottleneck.
Waymo LIDAR plus radar compensates when cameras degrade in fog and rain. Tesla FSD is camera-only. Snow-belt cities are off-limits for all commercial AV today.